📦 deps(thirdparty): update snapshots
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# Common Pitfalls
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Cognitive biases and resistance patterns that derail root cause investigation.
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## Resistance Patterns
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Rationalizations that prevent finding root cause:
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| Thought | Why It's Wrong | Counter |
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|---------|----------------|---------|
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| "I already looked at that" | Memory is unreliable under pressure | Re-examine with fresh evidence |
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| "That can't be the issue" | Assumptions block investigation | Test anyway, let evidence decide |
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| "We need to fix this quickly" | Pressure leads to random changes | Methodical investigation is faster |
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| "The logs don't show anything" | Absence of evidence != evidence of absence | Consider what logs might be missing |
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| "It worked before" | Systems change constantly | Past behavior doesn't guarantee current |
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| "Let me just try this one thing" | Random trial without hypothesis wastes time | Form hypothesis first |
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### Warning Signs
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You're falling into resistance when:
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- Same thoughts recurring without new evidence
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- Feeling defensive about previous conclusions
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- Avoiding re-testing areas you "already checked"
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- Making changes without understanding why they might work
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### Recovery
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When you catch yourself:
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1. Pause the investigation
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2. Write down current assumptions
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3. Challenge each assumption with "how do I know this?"
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4. Return to methodology
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## Confirmation Bias
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Tendency to see evidence supporting existing beliefs.
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### Manifestations
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- Seeing only evidence supporting pet hypothesis
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- Dismissing contradictory data as "noise"
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- Stopping investigation once "a" cause is found
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- Interpreting ambiguous evidence favorably
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### Counter-Strategies
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**Actively seek disconfirmation**:
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- Ask "what would prove me wrong?"
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- Design tests specifically to disprove hypothesis
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- Have someone else review your reasoning
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**Test alternative hypotheses**:
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- Even when confident in one theory
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- Especially when confident in one theory
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- Give each hypothesis fair testing time
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**Document objectively**:
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- Record all evidence, not just supporting evidence
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- Note your confidence level before and after tests
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- Track hypothesis changes over time
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## Correlation vs Causation
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Mistaking timing for cause.
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### Common Mistakes
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| Observation | Faulty Conclusion |
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|-------------|-------------------|
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| "It started when X changed" | X caused it |
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| "Happens at specific time" | Time is the cause |
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| "Only affects user Y" | User Y is doing something wrong |
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| "Works after restart" | Memory/state is the issue |
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### Verification Steps
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1. **Test direct causal mechanism** — Can you explain HOW X causes the symptom?
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2. **Look for confounding variables** — What else changed or varies?
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3. **Verify by removing supposed cause** — Does removing X fix it?
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4. **Test in isolation** — Does X cause it when nothing else varies?
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### Example
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Observation: "Bug only appears on Mondays"
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Bad conclusion: "Something about Monday causes the bug"
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Better investigation:
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- What's different on Monday? (traffic patterns, batch jobs, fresh caches)
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- Is it Monday specifically or "first day after weekend"?
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- Does it happen on holidays?
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- What runs over the weekend?
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## Anchoring
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Over-reliance on first piece of information.
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### Manifestations
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- First hypothesis dominates thinking
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- Initial symptom description defines investigation
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- Early evidence weighted more heavily
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- Difficulty abandoning initial direction
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### Counter-Strategies
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- Explicitly generate 3+ hypotheses before testing any
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- Weight evidence by quality, not order discovered
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- Periodically re-read original problem statement
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- Ask "what if my first assumption is wrong?"
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## Availability Heuristic
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Over-weighting recent or memorable experiences.
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### Manifestations
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- "This looks like the bug we had last week"
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- Assuming familiar problems over unfamiliar ones
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- Checking usual suspects first (sometimes good, often biasing)
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### Counter-Strategies
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- Consider base rates (how often does this actually happen?)
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- Check if "familiar" actually matches evidence
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- Maintain systematic approach even when "obvious"
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## Premature Closure
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Stopping investigation too early.
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### Warning Signs
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- Relief when finding "a" cause
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- Desire to move to fix stage quickly
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- Skipping verification steps
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- Not testing alternative hypotheses
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### Prevention
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- Multiple working hypotheses rule
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- Require explicit disconfirmation of alternatives
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- Verification stage mandatory before declaring root cause
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- Ask "what else could cause this symptom?"
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## Sunk Cost Fallacy
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Continuing failed approach due to invested effort.
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### Manifestations
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- "We've spent hours on this theory, it must be right"
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- Reluctance to abandon promising-but-wrong direction
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- Adding complexity to failing hypothesis instead of reconsidering
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### Counter-Strategies
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- Time-box hypothesis testing
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- Set explicit abandon criteria before starting
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- Treat investigation time as learning, not investment
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- Ask "if I started fresh, would I pursue this?"
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## Escalation Protocol
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When you recognize you're stuck in a pitfall:
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1. **Acknowledge** — Name the bias or pattern
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2. **Document** — Write down current state and reasoning
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3. **Reset** — Return to discovery stage
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4. **Reframe** — Look at problem from different angle
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5. **Seek outside perspective** — Fresh eyes often see what you miss
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If stuck for > 2x expected time, mandatory escalation or perspective shift.
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