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Scenario-Specific Assumption Mining Checklists / 场景专用假设挖掘清单

This file provides structured mining checklists for 8 common scenario types (4 Chinese-native + 4 English-native). Each checklist contains high-frequency hidden assumptions that people in those situations almost never question, plus tailored probing questions to surface them.

When a user's question matches a scenario type, use the corresponding checklist to ensure your Phase 2 (Assumption Mining) is thorough and culturally relevant.

🇨🇳 中文场景

场景一：职业决策（换工作、转行、升职、创业）

高频隐藏假设清单：

  1. 大公司比小公司更稳定、更安全
  2. 跳槽一定能涨薪 20% 以上
  3. 我的技能在市场上是稀缺的 / 有竞争力的
  4. 35 岁是职业发展的分水岭
  5. 管理岗比技术岗的天花板更高
  6. 行业经验比通用能力更重要
  7. 现在的不满会在换了环境之后消失
  8. 大厂背景（字节/腾讯/阿里）是职业加速器
  9. 远程工作会影响职业发展
  10. 学历（985/211/硕士）对职业发展至关重要
  11. 做自己喜欢的事就不会觉得累
  12. 在一个公司待太久会"贬值"
  13. 只要够努力，什么行业都能做好
  14. 我的上级/领导对我的评价是客观的
  15. 体制内一定比体制外稳定

推荐挖掘问题：

  • "你说想换工作 — 如果当前公司环境改善 50%，你还想走吗？"
  • "你认为自己的核心竞争力是什么？你的同事/猎头也这么认为吗？"
  • "你说35岁是门槛 — 你认识几个35岁以上转型成功的案例？"
  • "你想进大厂 — 你了解大厂同级别的实际日常工作状态吗？"
  • "你说现在是好时机 — 好时机的判断依据是什么？是数据还是感觉？"

场景二：产品方向验证（创业、新功能、业务转型）

高频隐藏假设清单：

  1. 用户说他们需要这个功能 = 他们会为此付费
  2. 市场足够大（TAM 看起来很大）
  3. 我们能比竞品做得更好
  4. 技术壁垒足够高，竞争者不容易模仿
  5. 只要产品好，营销不是问题
  6. 增长会随着时间自然发生
  7. 我们团队有能力执行这个方向
  8. 客户的反馈 = 市场需求
  9. 先入者有优势 / 我们动作要快
  10. 融资之后就能解决增长问题
  11. 用户留存率会随着产品完善而提升
  12. 这个赛道还没有真正的竞争者
  13. 我们的目标用户和我们自己的画像相似
  14. 小范围验证的成功可以直接放大

推荐挖掘问题：

  • "你说用户需要这个 — 有多少人实际掏了钱？愿望和付费之间差距有多大？"
  • "你说市场很大 — 你的可触达市场（SAM）是多少？你能触达的渠道是什么？"
  • "你说你们能做得更好 — '更好'具体是什么维度？用户真的在乎这个维度吗？"
  • "你说要快速行动 — 在这个领域，速度真的比深度重要吗？"
  • "你的竞品分析里，有没有包括'用户目前的替代方案'（包括 Excel 和不作为）？"

场景三：消费选择（买房、投资、重大消费）

高频隐藏假设清单：

  1. 房价长期来看一定会涨
  2. 学区房是刚需，不买孩子就输在起跑线
  3. 租房是"帮别人还房贷"，买房才是资产
  4. 保险是必须的 / 买越多越好
  5. 存钱比投资更安全
  6. 黄金/房产是最好的抗通胀资产
  7. 大品牌一定质量更好
  8. 越贵的东西越保值
  9. 投资要分散，鸡蛋不放一个篮子
  10. 提前还贷一定比投资划算
  11. 有车/有房才算"安顿下来"
  12. 消费升级是生活品质提高的标志
  13. 早买早享受，晚买有折扣但错过了使用时间

推荐挖掘问题：

  • "你说房价会涨 — 你参考的是过去20年的数据。未来20年的人口结构和经济增速一样吗？"
  • "你说学区房是刚需 — '孩子教育'具体需要学区房解决什么问题？有没有替代方案？"
  • "你说租房不值 — 你算过同地段租房+投资差额 vs 买房+还贷的 30 年总成本吗？"
  • "这笔消费给你的满足感预计能持续多久？"
  • "如果你不做这笔消费，你最担心什么？这个担心是真实风险还是社会压力？"

场景四：认知信念质疑（人生观、价值观、方法论）

高频隐藏假设清单：

  1. 努力一定有回报（方向不对的努力呢？）
  2. 年轻就该拼，老了才享受
  3. 稳定才是最重要的
  4. 读书/学历改变命运
  5. 社交人脉 = 个人实力的外延
  6. 时间管理 = 效率提升（忙和有效是两回事）
  7. 情绪化是不成熟的表现
  8. 成功人士的方法论可以复制
  9. 坚持就对了（沉没成本？）
  10. 先苦后甜 / 延迟满足一定更好
  11. 别人的评价是衡量自身价值的重要指标
  12. 选择比努力重要（但选择能力也是通过努力培养的）
  13. 信息越多决策越好
  14. 理性决策一定优于直觉

推荐挖掘问题：

  • "你说努力一定有回报 — 你指的是哪种努力？你怎么定义'回报'？"
  • "你说稳定最重要 — 稳定的成本是什么？你放弃了什么来换取稳定？"
  • "你说要延迟满足 — 延迟到什么时候？你怎么知道那个未来一定更好？"
  • "你说信息越多决策越好 — 你最近哪次重大决策是因为信息太多而犹豫不决的？"
  • "你从谁那里学到这个信念的？他们当时的处境和你现在一样吗？"

🇺🇸 English Scenarios

Scenario 5: Career Decisions (Job Change, Career Pivot, Promotion)

High-Frequency Hidden Assumptions:

  1. A bigger company is always safer and more stable
  2. I need an MBA / advanced degree to advance to leadership
  3. Remote work will hurt my career progression
  4. I'm too old to switch industries (the "ageism" assumption)
  5. My current skills are highly transferable to any industry
  6. Higher pay = better career move
  7. I need to "pay my dues" before I can lead
  8. The job market is either "hot" or "cold" — binary thinking
  9. My manager's opinion reflects the company's opinion of me
  10. Staying at one company too long looks bad on a resume
  11. I should follow my passion and the money will follow
  12. A title promotion equals real career growth
  13. Networking is the most important career skill
  14. I need to have a 5-year plan

Recommended Probing Questions:

  • "You say you want to switch jobs — if your current role improved 50%, would you still leave?"
  • "You say you're too old — how many people in your target industry are your age or older?"
  • "You say remote work hurts career growth — what evidence do you have beyond anecdotes?"
  • "You say higher pay is better — what's the total compensation including work-life balance, learning, and stress?"
  • "Who told you that you need an MBA? Do they have one? Did it work for them the way they claim?"

Scenario 6: Business & Product Validation (Startup, New Feature, Pivot)

High-Frequency Hidden Assumptions:

  1. If we build it, they will come
  2. The TAM (Total Addressable Market) is $X billion — therefore we'll get a slice
  3. We have a first-mover advantage
  4. Our technology is our moat
  5. Users will switch from their current solution because ours is "better"
  6. A successful MVP means the product will scale
  7. Our target user profile matches our own profile
  8. Competitor analysis = looking at direct competitors only (ignoring spreadsheets, email, or doing nothing)
  9. Growth will come organically once the product is ready
  10. Venture funding will solve our growth problem
  11. Customer interviews = validated demand
  12. B2B sales cycles are predictable and repeatable
  13. We can outexecute the incumbents because we're more agile
  14. Monthly active users = product-market fit

Recommended Probing Questions:

  • "You say users need this — how many have actually paid? Wishing and paying are very different."
  • "You say the market is huge — what's your SAM? What channels can you actually reach?"
  • "You say you have a moat — can a well-funded competitor replicate it in 6 months?"
  • "You say you validated with an MVP — how many users stayed after 3 months?"
  • "Your competitor analysis includes 'doing nothing' as an alternative, right?"

Scenario 7: Financial & Life Decisions (Property, Investing, Major Purchases)

High-Frequency Hidden Assumptions:

  1. Real estate always appreciates in the long run
  2. Renting is "throwing money away"
  3. Diversification eliminates risk
  4. I need $X million to retire comfortably
  5. Index funds are always the safest long-term investment
  6. Buying a house is a better investment than renting + investing the difference
  7. Student loans are always "good debt"
  8. I should maximize my 401k/pension before doing anything else
  9. Insurance is always worth the premium
  10. Early retirement = success
  11. A financial advisor always has my best interests in mind
  12. More expensive = better quality (cars, education, healthcare)
  13. Debt is always bad
  14. I need to own assets to build wealth

Recommended Probing Questions:

  • "You say real estate always goes up — are you using 1980-2020 data? What about Japan 1990-2020?"
  • "You say renting is wasting money — have you calculated rent + invest vs buy + mortgage over 30 years?"
  • "You say you need $X to retire — how did you arrive at that number? What lifestyle does it assume?"
  • "You say index funds are safest — safest compared to what? Over what time horizon?"
  • "Your financial advisor — do they earn commissions on the products they recommend?"

Scenario 8: Belief & Worldview Audit (Values, Methodology, Life Philosophy)

High-Frequency Hidden Assumptions:

  1. Hard work always pays off (what about direction?)
  2. Follow your passion and you'll never work a day (survivorship bias?)
  3. Failure is always the best teacher (only if you extract the right lesson)
  4. More data = better decisions (analysis paralysis is real)
  5. Rational thinking is always superior to intuition
  6. Success is primarily about talent/intelligence
  7. Consistency beats intensity (in what contexts?)
  8. You should always play to your strengths (what about critical weaknesses?)
  9. The best time to start was yesterday (urgency bias)
  10. Compounding effects mean small habits always work (linear vs threshold effects)
  11. Being busy = being productive
  12. Feedback from others is essential for growth (which others? what kind of feedback?)
  13. You can learn anything with enough time
  14. Meritocracy exists — the best work gets recognized

Recommended Probing Questions:

  • "You say hard work pays off — in what domains? Can you name a case where hard work in the wrong direction made things worse?"
  • "You say follow your passion — how many people do you know who followed their passion and failed? How would you know?"
  • "You say more data is better — when was the last time you delayed a decision because you had too much data?"
  • "You say the best time to start was yesterday — what if starting too early, before you're ready, actually increases failure risk?"
  • "Where did you learn this belief? What was the context? Does that context match yours?"

How to Use These Checklists / 使用方法

  1. Identify the scenario type from the user's question
  2. Use the checklist as a mining guide — not all assumptions will apply to every user, but scan through them systematically
  3. Prioritize culturally-specific assumptions — a Chinese user asking about career decisions will have very different hidden assumptions than an American user
  4. Combine with organic mining — the checklist is a starting point, not a ceiling. Always mine for assumptions unique to the user's specific situation
  5. Use the probing questions to surface assumptions the user can't articulate directly