248 lines
12 KiB
Markdown
248 lines
12 KiB
Markdown
# Scenario-Specific Assumption Mining Checklists / 场景专用假设挖掘清单
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This file provides structured mining checklists for 8 common scenario types (4 Chinese-native + 4 English-native). Each checklist contains **high-frequency hidden assumptions** that people in those situations almost never question, plus tailored probing questions to surface them.
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When a user's question matches a scenario type, use the corresponding checklist to ensure your Phase 2 (Assumption Mining) is thorough and culturally relevant.
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---
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## 🇨🇳 中文场景
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---
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### 场景一：职业决策（换工作、转行、升职、创业）
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**高频隐藏假设清单：**
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1. 大公司比小公司更稳定、更安全
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2. 跳槽一定能涨薪 20% 以上
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3. 我的技能在市场上是稀缺的 / 有竞争力的
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4. 35 岁是职业发展的分水岭
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5. 管理岗比技术岗的天花板更高
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6. 行业经验比通用能力更重要
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7. 现在的不满会在换了环境之后消失
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8. 大厂背景（字节/腾讯/阿里）是职业加速器
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9. 远程工作会影响职业发展
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10. 学历（985/211/硕士）对职业发展至关重要
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11. 做自己喜欢的事就不会觉得累
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12. 在一个公司待太久会"贬值"
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13. 只要够努力，什么行业都能做好
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14. 我的上级/领导对我的评价是客观的
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15. 体制内一定比体制外稳定
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**推荐挖掘问题：**
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- "你说想换工作 — 如果当前公司环境改善 50%，你还想走吗？"
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- "你认为自己的核心竞争力是什么？你的同事/猎头也这么认为吗？"
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- "你说35岁是门槛 — 你认识几个35岁以上转型成功的案例？"
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- "你想进大厂 — 你了解大厂同级别的实际日常工作状态吗？"
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- "你说现在是好时机 — 好时机的判断依据是什么？是数据还是感觉？"
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---
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### 场景二：产品方向验证（创业、新功能、业务转型）
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**高频隐藏假设清单：**
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1. 用户说他们需要这个功能 = 他们会为此付费
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2. 市场足够大（TAM 看起来很大）
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3. 我们能比竞品做得更好
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4. 技术壁垒足够高，竞争者不容易模仿
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5. 只要产品好，营销不是问题
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6. 增长会随着时间自然发生
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7. 我们团队有能力执行这个方向
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8. 客户的反馈 = 市场需求
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9. 先入者有优势 / 我们动作要快
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10. 融资之后就能解决增长问题
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11. 用户留存率会随着产品完善而提升
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12. 这个赛道还没有真正的竞争者
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13. 我们的目标用户和我们自己的画像相似
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14. 小范围验证的成功可以直接放大
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**推荐挖掘问题：**
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- "你说用户需要这个 — 有多少人实际掏了钱？愿望和付费之间差距有多大？"
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- "你说市场很大 — 你的可触达市场（SAM）是多少？你能触达的渠道是什么？"
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- "你说你们能做得更好 — '更好'具体是什么维度？用户真的在乎这个维度吗？"
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- "你说要快速行动 — 在这个领域，速度真的比深度重要吗？"
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- "你的竞品分析里，有没有包括'用户目前的替代方案'（包括 Excel 和不作为）？"
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---
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### 场景三：消费选择（买房、投资、重大消费）
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**高频隐藏假设清单：**
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1. 房价长期来看一定会涨
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2. 学区房是刚需，不买孩子就输在起跑线
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3. 租房是"帮别人还房贷"，买房才是资产
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4. 保险是必须的 / 买越多越好
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5. 存钱比投资更安全
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6. 黄金/房产是最好的抗通胀资产
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7. 大品牌一定质量更好
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8. 越贵的东西越保值
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9. 投资要分散，鸡蛋不放一个篮子
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10. 提前还贷一定比投资划算
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11. 有车/有房才算"安顿下来"
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12. 消费升级是生活品质提高的标志
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13. 早买早享受，晚买有折扣但错过了使用时间
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**推荐挖掘问题：**
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- "你说房价会涨 — 你参考的是过去20年的数据。未来20年的人口结构和经济增速一样吗？"
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- "你说学区房是刚需 — '孩子教育'具体需要学区房解决什么问题？有没有替代方案？"
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- "你说租房不值 — 你算过同地段租房+投资差额 vs 买房+还贷的 30 年总成本吗？"
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- "这笔消费给你的满足感预计能持续多久？"
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- "如果你不做这笔消费，你最担心什么？这个担心是真实风险还是社会压力？"
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---
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### 场景四：认知信念质疑（人生观、价值观、方法论）
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**高频隐藏假设清单：**
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1. 努力一定有回报（方向不对的努力呢？）
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2. 年轻就该拼，老了才享受
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3. 稳定才是最重要的
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4. 读书/学历改变命运
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5. 社交人脉 = 个人实力的外延
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6. 时间管理 = 效率提升（忙和有效是两回事）
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7. 情绪化是不成熟的表现
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8. 成功人士的方法论可以复制
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9. 坚持就对了（沉没成本？）
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10. 先苦后甜 / 延迟满足一定更好
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11. 别人的评价是衡量自身价值的重要指标
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12. 选择比努力重要（但选择能力也是通过努力培养的）
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13. 信息越多决策越好
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14. 理性决策一定优于直觉
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**推荐挖掘问题：**
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- "你说努力一定有回报 — 你指的是哪种努力？你怎么定义'回报'？"
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- "你说稳定最重要 — 稳定的成本是什么？你放弃了什么来换取稳定？"
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- "你说要延迟满足 — 延迟到什么时候？你怎么知道那个未来一定更好？"
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- "你说信息越多决策越好 — 你最近哪次重大决策是因为信息太多而犹豫不决的？"
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- "你从谁那里学到这个信念的？他们当时的处境和你现在一样吗？"
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---
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## 🇺🇸 English Scenarios
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---
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### Scenario 5: Career Decisions (Job Change, Career Pivot, Promotion)
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**High-Frequency Hidden Assumptions:**
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1. A bigger company is always safer and more stable
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2. I need an MBA / advanced degree to advance to leadership
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3. Remote work will hurt my career progression
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4. I'm too old to switch industries (the "ageism" assumption)
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5. My current skills are highly transferable to any industry
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6. Higher pay = better career move
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7. I need to "pay my dues" before I can lead
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8. The job market is either "hot" or "cold" — binary thinking
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9. My manager's opinion reflects the company's opinion of me
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10. Staying at one company too long looks bad on a resume
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11. I should follow my passion and the money will follow
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12. A title promotion equals real career growth
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13. Networking is the most important career skill
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14. I need to have a 5-year plan
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**Recommended Probing Questions:**
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- "You say you want to switch jobs — if your current role improved 50%, would you still leave?"
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- "You say you're too old — how many people in your target industry are your age or older?"
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- "You say remote work hurts career growth — what evidence do you have beyond anecdotes?"
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- "You say higher pay is better — what's the total compensation including work-life balance, learning, and stress?"
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- "Who told you that you need an MBA? Do they have one? Did it work for them the way they claim?"
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---
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### Scenario 6: Business & Product Validation (Startup, New Feature, Pivot)
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**High-Frequency Hidden Assumptions:**
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1. If we build it, they will come
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2. The TAM (Total Addressable Market) is $X billion — therefore we'll get a slice
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3. We have a first-mover advantage
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4. Our technology is our moat
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5. Users will switch from their current solution because ours is "better"
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6. A successful MVP means the product will scale
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7. Our target user profile matches our own profile
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8. Competitor analysis = looking at direct competitors only (ignoring spreadsheets, email, or doing nothing)
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9. Growth will come organically once the product is ready
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10. Venture funding will solve our growth problem
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11. Customer interviews = validated demand
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12. B2B sales cycles are predictable and repeatable
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13. We can outexecute the incumbents because we're more agile
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14. Monthly active users = product-market fit
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**Recommended Probing Questions:**
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- "You say users need this — how many have actually paid? Wishing and paying are very different."
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- "You say the market is huge — what's your SAM? What channels can you actually reach?"
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- "You say you have a moat — can a well-funded competitor replicate it in 6 months?"
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- "You say you validated with an MVP — how many users stayed after 3 months?"
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- "Your competitor analysis includes 'doing nothing' as an alternative, right?"
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---
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### Scenario 7: Financial & Life Decisions (Property, Investing, Major Purchases)
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**High-Frequency Hidden Assumptions:**
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1. Real estate always appreciates in the long run
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2. Renting is "throwing money away"
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3. Diversification eliminates risk
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4. I need $X million to retire comfortably
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5. Index funds are always the safest long-term investment
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6. Buying a house is a better investment than renting + investing the difference
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7. Student loans are always "good debt"
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8. I should maximize my 401k/pension before doing anything else
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9. Insurance is always worth the premium
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10. Early retirement = success
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11. A financial advisor always has my best interests in mind
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12. More expensive = better quality (cars, education, healthcare)
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13. Debt is always bad
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14. I need to own assets to build wealth
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**Recommended Probing Questions:**
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- "You say real estate always goes up — are you using 1980-2020 data? What about Japan 1990-2020?"
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- "You say renting is wasting money — have you calculated rent + invest vs buy + mortgage over 30 years?"
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- "You say you need $X to retire — how did you arrive at that number? What lifestyle does it assume?"
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- "You say index funds are safest — safest compared to what? Over what time horizon?"
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- "Your financial advisor — do they earn commissions on the products they recommend?"
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---
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### Scenario 8: Belief & Worldview Audit (Values, Methodology, Life Philosophy)
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**High-Frequency Hidden Assumptions:**
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1. Hard work always pays off (what about direction?)
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2. Follow your passion and you'll never work a day (survivorship bias?)
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3. Failure is always the best teacher (only if you extract the right lesson)
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4. More data = better decisions (analysis paralysis is real)
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5. Rational thinking is always superior to intuition
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6. Success is primarily about talent/intelligence
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7. Consistency beats intensity (in what contexts?)
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8. You should always play to your strengths (what about critical weaknesses?)
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9. The best time to start was yesterday (urgency bias)
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10. Compounding effects mean small habits always work (linear vs threshold effects)
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11. Being busy = being productive
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12. Feedback from others is essential for growth (which others? what kind of feedback?)
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13. You can learn anything with enough time
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14. Meritocracy exists — the best work gets recognized
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**Recommended Probing Questions:**
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- "You say hard work pays off — in what domains? Can you name a case where hard work in the wrong direction made things worse?"
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- "You say follow your passion — how many people do you know who followed their passion and failed? How would you know?"
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- "You say more data is better — when was the last time you delayed a decision because you had too much data?"
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- "You say the best time to start was yesterday — what if starting too early, before you're ready, actually increases failure risk?"
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- "Where did you learn this belief? What was the context? Does that context match yours?"
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---
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## How to Use These Checklists / 使用方法
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1. **Identify the scenario type** from the user's question
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2. **Use the checklist as a mining guide** — not all assumptions will apply to every user, but scan through them systematically
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3. **Prioritize culturally-specific assumptions** — a Chinese user asking about career decisions will have very different hidden assumptions than an American user
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4. **Combine with organic mining** — the checklist is a starting point, not a ceiling. Always mine for assumptions unique to the user's specific situation
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5. **Use the probing questions** to surface assumptions the user can't articulate directly
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