playbook/antigravity-awesome-skills/skills/xvary-stock-research/references/scoring.md

XVARY Scores (Public Definitions)

This file defines the public score framework used by the skill.

Important: production XVARY systems use proprietary calibrations. The equations below expose the logic shape, not private threshold tables.

Score Scale

All scores are normalized to 0-100.

• 80-100: Strong
• 60-79: Constructive
• 40-59: Mixed
• 0-39: Weak

Inputs

Inputs come from:

• tools/edgar.py (filings + fundamentals)
• tools/market.py (price + valuation context)

The public skill uses the latest annual and quarterly data where available.

1) Momentum Score

Measures forward drive in fundamentals + market behavior.

Public formula shape:

Momentum = 100 * (w1*Growth + w2*Revision + w3*RelativeStrength + w4*OperatingLeverage)

Component definitions (normalized to 0-1):

• Growth: revenue/EPS growth persistence
• Revision: direction of estimate/expectation changes
• RelativeStrength: recent relative price performance
• OperatingLeverage: incremental profit conversion on growth

2) Stability Score

Measures durability and variance control.

Public formula shape:

Stability = 100 * (w1*MarginStability + w2*CashFlowStability + w3*CyclicalityBuffer + w4*ExecutionConsistency)

Components:

• MarginStability: volatility in gross/operating profile
• CashFlowStability: operating cash-flow consistency
• CyclicalityBuffer: sensitivity to external demand shocks
• ExecutionConsistency: beat/miss and guidance reliability trend

3) Financial Health Score

Measures solvency quality and balance-sheet resilience.

Public formula shape:

FinancialHealth = 100 * (w1*Liquidity + w2*Leverage + w3*Coverage + w4*CashConversion)

Components:

• Liquidity: cash + near-term flexibility
• Leverage: debt load relative to earnings power
• Coverage: debt service coverage strength
• CashConversion: earnings-to-cash realization quality

4) Upside Estimate Score

Measures risk-reward asymmetry vs. implied expectations.

Public formula shape:

Upside = 100 * (w1*IntrinsicGap + w2*ScenarioAsymmetry + w3*CatalystDensity + w4*ExpectationMispricing)

Components:

• IntrinsicGap: conservative value range minus current price
• ScenarioAsymmetry: upside/downside distribution quality
• CatalystDensity: number and quality of near-term unlocks
• ExpectationMispricing: mismatch between consensus and thesis path

Composite View (Optional)

Some outputs use an optional composite:

Composite = a*Momentum + b*Stability + c*FinancialHealth + d*Upside

Weights are intentionally configurable by sector/business model in production.

Confidence Annotation

Each score can include a confidence tag based on evidence depth:

• High: robust multi-source evidence, low internal contradiction
• Medium: adequate evidence, some assumptions open
• Low: sparse data or unresolved contradictions

Kill Criteria Coupling

Scores are never final without kill criteria.

If a listed kill criterion triggers, the thesis should be re-underwritten regardless of score level.

Not Included in Public Docs

• Production weight values (w1..w4, a..d)
• Threshold cutoffs and regime-specific overrides
• Internal fallback logic for sparse/contradictory data